The sun sets behind the Palais Coburg where closed-door nuclear talks take place in Vienna, Austria, Aug 5, 2022. (FLORIAN SCHROETTER / AP)
The longevity of any newly restored Iran nuclear deal will depend on the United States who unilaterally abandoned the original pact in 2018, according to experts.
The expert comments came as the US irons out concessions with Iran with a possible resurrection of the scuppered 2015 deal on the horizon.
The analysts also said Iran’s re-engagement with the world economy, currently limited by US-led sanctions, through a renewal of the deal, would offer relief to a global system which has been battered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
The planned visit of Mossad head David Barnea to Washington next week for talks on the Iranian nuclear deal is indicative of the fact that anti-Iranian hysteria will continue to act as a stumbling block in the restoration of the JCPOA
Jawaid Iqbal, Chairman of the Department of West Asian and North African Studies at India’s Aligarh Muslim University
In a press conference in Tehran on Aug 29, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that the lifting of anti-Iran sanctions and unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad have been at the core of the nuclear talks.
READ MORE: US, Iran 'finesse issue of IAEA's nuclear probes, for now'
He said that Iran did not seek to develop nuclear weapons but would employ nuclear technology for civilian purposes and that Iran’s nuclear industry and nuclear capability “are the right of the Islamic Republic and the people of Iran.”
Raisi said his country seeks to use nuclear technology in agriculture, oil and gas, medicine and many other civilian sectors and that safeguard issues should be resolved before reaching an agreement between Iran and other signatories to the deal, namely China, France, Russia, the UK and the US plus Germany.
He was referring to reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, about the alleged "discovery of uranium traces" in three locations that "has not been announced" by Iran. Iran insists the accusations are "political" and that the case should be closed "forever."
Jawaid Iqbal, chairman of the Department of West Asian and North African Studies at Aligarh Muslim University in India, said the latest mediated talks by the European Union between Iran and the US regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, “will not play out in a simple manner.”
ALSO READ: Experts: US must prove ‘sincerity’ over Iran deal
Iqbal said that Tehran has laid down three conditions for accepting the EU's proposals, which include the lifting of sanctions, the guarantee that no future US president would renege on the nuclear deal if it were revived, and the closure of the IAEA’s probe into several Iranian nuclear sites, where man-made nuclear particles were found several years ago.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference in Tehran on Aug 29 2022. (STR / AFP)
“The US has been unwilling to allow these concessions due to the presence of hawkish foreign policy experts in US President Joe Biden's administration and the pressure being applied by the Zionist lobby,” Iqbal said.
“The planned visit of Mossad head David Barnea to Washington next week for talks on the Iranian nuclear deal is indicative of the fact that anti-Iranian hysteria will continue to act as a stumbling block in the restoration of the JCPOA,” he added.
English language online newspaper Times of Israel reported on Aug 28 that Barnea, the chief of Israel’s intelligence agency, will travel to Washington next week to discuss the Iran deal, which Barnea and Israeli senior government officials have criticized as a bad deal.
READ MORE: China urges US, Australia, Britain to reverse nuke sub deal
The report said a senior Israeli government confirmed that the White House was aware of Barnea’s trip but was keeping quiet on whether the Biden administration was involved in its planning.
Despite the challenges, Arhama Siddiqa, a Middle East expert and research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad in Pakistan, said that the US and Iran appear to have resolved many “bones of contention” that have been impediments to the revival of the deal – something which was “unthinkable even until last year.”
n this file photo, international flags flutter outside of the UN headquarters during the opening of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria on Sept 10, 2018. (JOE KLAMAR / AFP)
The longevity of the deal will depend upon a concrete assurance by the US to not unilaterally withdraw from the deal as it did the last time. It should acknowledge that Iran and Russia are staunch partners as is Iran and China – and the US should not let Iran’s bilateral relations cloud its judgment
Arhama Siddiqa, Expert at Pakistan’s Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad
She said it would not have been possible had it not been for the Russia-Ukraine standoff earlier this year, which has left a significant gap in the supply of oil.
“The longevity of the deal will depend upon a concrete assurance by the US to not unilaterally withdraw from the deal as it did the last time. It should acknowledge that Iran and Russia are staunch partners as is Iran and China – and the US should not let Iran’s bilateral relations cloud its judgment,” Siddiqa said.
Negotiations on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal began in April last year in the Austrian capital of Vienna but were suspended in March this year because of political differences between Tehran and Washington.
The latest round of the nuclear talks was held in Austria's capital Vienna in early August after a five-month hiatus. On Aug 8, the EU put forward a "final text" of the draft decision on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.
ALSO READ: PM: Israel won't be bound by Iran nuclear deal
"The Russia-Ukraine standoff has been heavy, yes, globally, but primarily for European countries. Russia supplied the EU with 40 percent of its natural gas last year. Revival of the JCPOA means resumption of Iranian gas exports globally,” Siddiqa said.
“With a renewal of the deal, there can be a resumption of Iranian oil and gas exports worldwide, thus filling the void and much needed relief for conflict fatigued global consumers,” Siddiqa added.
Xinhua contributed to this report.
jan@chinadailyapac.com