It’s been quite a year for China in 2022. From the highs of the Olympics, which seems a lifetime ago now, to the lows of the lockdowns in Shanghai, China has experienced the entire gamut of emotions when it comes to reintegrating into the world. Now, the country is firmly emerging from its COVID-19-induced self-isolation. With that comes the opportunity to reintegrate into the global market and community, possibly under amended terms of engagement.
China’s absence has been felt in many aspects of global life, but nowhere more so than in the field of international development. We are seeing new conflict hotspots emerging, inflation at levels not seen for decades, and a looming global energy crisis — with the poorest around the world being hardest hit. Look at what happened when Europe realized it needed more gas for storage: Developing countries could not compete on price for liquefied natural gas and Pakistan and Sri Lanka lost many a bidding war to wealthier European nations. The one saving grace was that China was able to release some of its pre-purchased fuel reserves onto the market and ease the price pressures.
At times like these the original mission of the Belt and Road Initiative comes to mind: “To promote the economic prosperity of the countries along the Belt and Road … promote world peace and development”. Historically, this has meant building out infrastructure to lay the foundations for economic development and greater trade, and eventually to develop closer cultural ties between China and the Belt and Road countries. The result after a decade of this is high quality infrastructure, but the inability of some host nations to make full use of it. Furthermore, with added pressures from COVID-19 and the restrictive response to it, many host nations have found it hard to stay on schedule with debt repayments, which in turn has generated mostly unwarranted sensational negative Western press coverage.
Not surprisingly, President Xi Jinping is considering a soft re-launch of the BRI and, potentially, a third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, to which he referred in his speech at the APEC meeting in Bangkok in November. It seems clear that would be a perfect venue to officially embrace a subtle change in methods that would improve both efficacy and public perception of the BRI.
It is clear to me that for BRI to truly be successful, it needs to focus on projects that bring about immediate genuine change and improve people’s lives both in the near and the long term. This means only focusing on solutions that acknowledge real-world feedback and which have a chance to work — and indeed have staying power. While a lot of the projects under the BRI umbrella have the technical characteristics and economic rationale behind them to make an economic impact, it’s the messaging around the longer term that is lacking.
For example, when China built a brand-new deep-water port in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, the only coverage it got was of the debt burden it placed on the public purse in Colombo. Chinese corporations have stepped in to make the port run profitably, but all the focus has been on the potential Chinese military uses for the said new port. This is all in the context of China being the world’s largest bilateral lender, and debt forgiver. Even in as challenging a year as 2022, 23 loans to 17 African countries were forgiven, making good on a pledge by President Xi at the 2021 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. Despite that, the stories of “debt diplomacy” and “exploitation” continue unabated. In my view this highlights the relative lack of focus on messaging around the BRI framework.
China must sell BRI not only as a great technical solution and tool for economic growth, but also as a gateway to cooperation with China which creates mutual benefits. There is a degree of dismissiveness by some on account of US soft power perhaps being more appealing. But it is my conviction that China has an awful lot to offer to developing nations. I am talking about things like its anti-corruption expertise; China has been able to effectively remove corruption from the top echelons of power, with some high-profile individuals being made to answer for their transgressions.
Then there is its sensible energy policy. China is embracing all forms of energy while prioritizing the standard of living for its citizens. This includes continuous improvement in accordance with environmental standards as well as world-leading renewables usage, while also making sure no family is left without access to a means of heating or powering their home. Finally, some 800 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty by the Chinese government, certainly an unprecedented feat in history in terms of magnitude.
The tremendous practical achievements of the BRI have not attracted the international recognition they richly deserve. While Chinese tech and Chinese advice have in most cases significantly advanced local development potential, China’s quiet approach of letting the end results speak for themselves have often led to underappreciation, if not misunderstanding, triggered by ignorant media which are keen to sensationalize. But there signs of a changing attitude: A China-sponsored virtual developmental conference, “Investing in Stability and Prosperity: The New Multilateralism for Development”, organized by the Global Institute for Tomorrow with the support of the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, is being held online and in Hong Kong on Dec 13. While not focused on the BRI, it addresses the key issues of multilateralism and shared prosperity, which the BRI should be a posterchild for. I am hopeful that events such as this one will become more commonplace and will bring about the recognition the BRI deserves.
The author is founder of LMResearch.co, a strategist, portfolio manager, analyst and PE advisor with over 15 years’ experience in emerging markets and natural resources.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.