Around 25 years ago, I recall reading expert media commentary that China may be able to build refrigerators — or even television sets; but it would never be able to build motor vehicles that would sell widely. The reasoning was that the manufacturing logistics required to bring so many diverse components together into a single product was not something China could manage. Chinese motor vehicles would remain rough and ready at best, rather like those from the former USSR.
In 2003, after the launch of Shenzhou 5, China’s first manned space flight, one respected, veteran local commentator agreed that China could bring off such a project using a highly planned, almost military-style application of resources. But, this argument continued, China’s central planned socialist system restricted the scope for cutting-edge scientific and technological advancement.
When the International Space Station was first established in 1998, it was a joint enterprise between the United States and Russia (the pivotal partners) together with Japan, the European Union and Canada. The ISS is now approaching the end of its serviceable life. US sanctions imposed on Russia have complicated the politics of possibly extending its life. Whenever it is finally allowed to be retired, plans will need to be worked out for its re-entry to Earth as it cannot maintain orbit indefinitely. It weighs (on Earth) over 400 metric tons — equivalent to the weight of around 400 small motor cars.
China expressed a firm interest in participating in projects being run at the ISS and received support from the EU to do so. The Christian Science Monitor reported in 2010 that the US was, however, openly wary about allowing any Chinese participation. In 2011, the US Congress passed a law vetoing US cooperation with the Chinese National Space Agency. China has not, consequently, been invited to send any nationals to visit the ISS.
Never mind: In late April this year, China launched the initial (Tianhe) module of its own, first-ever comprehensive manned space station. The Tiangong Space Station will be less than 25 percent of the mass (or Earth-weight) of the ISS once completed. Its expected life span is 10 to 15 years. Certain features are more advanced than those on the ISS.
China has expressed a wish to see foreign astronauts working and living in the new space station in the future. The China Manned Space agency signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs to invite UN member states to conduct scientific experiments aboard the new space station. Over 40 proposals from 27 countries have been submitted.
Meanwhile, back in July 2020, China launched its first (Tianwen 1) mission to Mars. On May 15 this year, the lander-rover portion of this project successfully set down on the surface of Mars, after the transit to Mars from Earth and a series of reconnaissance orbits. On May 22, the Zhurong rover drove from the lander onto the Martian surface and dropped a camera able to photograph both the lander and the rover. China became only the second nation, after the US, to land an operational rover on Mars — and on its first attempt.
It transpires that detailed, advanced planning of the sort very widely used by China does not, after all, shackle innovation in the way argued by a number of commentators some 20 years ago. By any measure, these new feats of space exploration by China are exceptional both in terms of the speed at which they have advanced and the sophistication and nature of the achievements. They foreshadow more to come.
Finally, let us consider, again, the manufacture of popular, mass-market motor vehicles, once also said to be a step too far for China. Last year, China manufactured around 30 million motor vehicles (primarily for local purchase). This comprised over 32 percent of the total number of motor vehicles produced worldwide.
Moreover, China is today both the largest producer and consumer of electric vehicles. It makes more than 50 percent of all EVs sold in the world and the bulk of electric buses made globally. China also dominates the global market for the supply of EV batteries.
We have recently been told that if Australia is ever going to make serious headway in boosting EV usage to replace fossil-fuel vehicles, it will have to rely on a supply of lower-cost, reliable Chinese EVs.
The unprecedented changes briefly outlined above with respect to space exploration and vehicle manufacturing in China have all been accomplished within a generation. Around 25 years ago, expert commentators were saying nothing of this sort was seriously conceivable for China. What, we can now reasonably wonder, may happen over the next 25 years?
The author is a visiting professor in the Faculty of Law, the University of Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.