GCC must look to Asian partners, especially China, to bolster security, economic well-being
There is a clear recognition globally and regionally that the world order is changing. In the Persian Gulf, the region is going through massive changes of its own.
The current transition in the global system presents many opportunities and risks to the Gulf region. Now is the right time to accelerate the implementation plans to deepen Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, initiatives, especially in security, monetary and economic fields.
The Gulf Arabs are becoming more confident about their place in the world; their energy resources are becoming more in demand and the regional conflicts are being proactively managed by regional states.
The Gulf nations are trying to redefine how the world views their security. Long gone are the days when the relations of the nations were defined by the “oil for security” perspective. They see their region as an integral and important part of the world economy. The region has what it takes to be thriving and prospering, unshackled from foreign-instigated conflicts and terrorism.
To understand the rising significance of the Gulf’s security, one has to see the big picture of the rapidly evolving world order and the shift of the economic center of gravity from the West to the East. It is estimated that by 2050, three out of the top four economies in the world will be in Asia.
Until then, and until alternatives are found for oil and gas — which is a long, long way from now — the Gulf region will continue to be a major supplier of energy to the world.
China is the largest importer of oil from the region; five out of six GCC countries are regularly among the top oil and gas suppliers to China. Within a decade, India is expected to become the largest oil and gas importer from the region, further solidifying the region’s position in the world.
Cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have taken advantage of the region’s strategic location and become logistics hubs for global trade and a bridge between the East and the West.
China has been the Gulf’s largest trading partner for a while, and last year the trade between the two sides increased substantially. Similar trends have been observed with India and some other Asian nations, making the security of their trade and maritime shipping lines ever more important.
As Asia continues to take a larger share of the global GDP, Gulf nations will continue their economic integration with the rising Asian powers. The Gulf nations are boosting dialogue with Asian nations bilaterally and multilaterally, as seen recently when some Gulf delegates attended a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
The Gulf countries are closely monitoring the progress of economic groupings such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and possibly soon they will establish communication to explore ways to contribute to and benefit from those groupings.
To defend their trade against 18th century-style piracy, both sides will have to invest in maritime navigation security which is an investment in the security of their trade.
One part of the reason the ancient Silk Road trade between the Gulf people and the South and East Asians experienced serious disruptions was the arrival and presence of foreign naval forces in the region, and the inability of traders on both sides of Asia to defend their trade routes.
Now that Asia, led by China, is returning to global center stage, one hopes that the trade and the vulnerabilities in maritime routes will not be used as a source of blackmail. Therefore, establishing a clear security framework within the region and between the two sides is critically important.
In March 2021, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed an unprecedented five-point initiative on achieving security and stability in the Middle East. The initiative included the important point of “jointly fostering collective security”, which is also a proposal from the 1990s that has been recently revived by Russia and supported by China.
The Gulf nations should seriously consider all those initiatives and proposals, by both traditional and non-traditional partners, and try to come up with a framework that works best for them.
In a world that is becoming increasingly multipolar, the Gulf region should not be “stuck” with one single security partner or one single bloc of partners. They should diversify their security relations beyond the traditional partners to include those in Asia that have capabilities and share their interest of ensuring regional stability and prosperity.
China and India, the region’s biggest trading partners, have a stake and interest in the region’s security. The Gulf nations should always consider these two Asian giants in their security calculations, especially in relation with maritime navigation.
The Gulf nations should avoid becoming a battleground in the rapidly intensifying great power competition. To achieve that, they should speed up establishing and implementing their own security principles and framework.
The author is a former strategy adviser to the chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Office and an AsiaGlobal Fellow at the Asia Global Institute.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.