Eyes on Thailand as quarantine set aside, but key Chinese market on hold
A group of tourists talks to reporters after their swab test for COVID-19 at the Phuket International Airport in Phuket, Thailand, July 1, 2021. (SAKCHAI LALIT / AP)
Thailand's move to welcome vaccinated international tourists for quarantine-free stays may set a model for other countries in the region, but the return of Chinese visitors－the kingdom's biggest source of foreign guests－could take some time, experts said.
The reopening of the tourism-dependent country will be "a proof of concept" as it may show how this will work in Asia, said Bill Barnett, managing director of hospitality consultancy C9 Hotelworks in Thailand.
If the vaccination rate progresses as the government anticipates, and travelers are fully immunized … Thailand can safely reopen
Sompong Vongpunsawad, virologist with the Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University
Under a program called Phuket Sandbox, the southern resort island started to allow fully vaccinated foreign tourists quarantine-free travel from Thursday. A further three popular Thai destinations－Koh Samui, Koh Phangan, and Koh Tao－will join a similar program from July 15, followed gradually by other locations later in the year.
Almost 8,000 foreign tourists have applied for an entry certificate through Thai embassies and consulates around the world since Thursday, the Bangkok Post reported on Monday.
ALSO READ: Chinese seen leading tourists to Phuket after reopening
The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects the pilot plan to help bring in about 129,000 foreign tourists and 500,000 Thai travelers to Phuket by September, generating a cash flow of about 15 billion baht (US$471 million).
Though China has been Thailand's biggest source of foreign tourists in recent years, Barnett said he thinks that Chinese visitor numbers are unlikely to be high in the short term given China's stringent quarantine requirements for returning travelers.
"It's a two-way issue," he said. "We don't expect any Chinese (tourists to visit Thailand) until the outbound China travel is kind of reset."
Jesper Palmqvist, area director for Asia Pacific at hospitality consultancy STR, said another reason that international tourism destinations like Thailand will need to wait longer for Chinese tourists is the rapid development of China's domestic tourism market, which had been growing fast even before the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The faster source markets will most likely be Eastern Europe, Russia, and parts of ASEAN," said Palmqvist referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
He said travelers, mostly from Europe, are already booking well in advance to spend their holidays in Thailand, especially for stays during the fourth quarter of this year.
Thailand has set a target to fully reopen to foreign visitors in mid-October, as Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha had said on June 16 that the country aimed to reopen within 120 days.
Prayut, after coming into contact with a businessperson who later tested positive for COVID-19, has been placed in quarantine, Xinhua News Agency reported on Monday. The encounter came during events for the Phuket Sandbox on Thursday.
The Bangkok Post reported the prerequisite is that only provinces that have vaccinated 70 percent of their populations will be allowed to open completely, citing Thailand's Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration.
"The Thai authorities have kept a safety-first approach for the last 18 months. If it reaches 70 percent (of the vaccination rate) … I think there is a great opportunity to open up and start recovery," said Palmqvist.
High hopes
He said countries will have to reopen due to economic reasons.
Thailand lost about US$50 billion in tourism revenue last year when foreign arrivals plunged 83 percent to 6.7 million, from a record 39.9 million in 2019, Reuters said in a report in early June. By Monday, Thailand had reported nearly 290,000 coronavirus infections with 2,276 deaths, according to Thai health authorities.
READ MORE: Phuket reports first Delta variant cases before reopening
For a full reopening, Thailand has set a goal to vaccinate 50 million people by early October.
"If the vaccination rate progresses as the government anticipates, and travelers are fully immunized prior to arrival and tested for COVID-19 upon arrival, Thailand can safely reopen," said Sompong Vongpunsawad, a virologist with the Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
About 70 percent of Phuket residents had received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by Thursday. Across Thailand as of Monday, 10.8 million doses had been administered since the country launched a national inoculation program in February, according to official data.
Sompong, conceding that it might be impossible to prevent imported infections or community spread of the coronavirus, said Thailand is aiming to do what is feasible.
kelly@chinadailyapac.com