Supporters of India's Congress party listen as party's candidate Navjot Singh Sidhu (not pictured) addresses the gathering during an election campaign for the upcoming Punjab state assembly elections, in Amritsar on Feb 11, 2022.
(NARINDER NANU / AFP)
Amid a third wave of COVID-19 infections, polls have begun in five Indian states, including Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state, where votes will test the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and help determine the country’s political direction ahead of general elections in 2024.
When it comes to Indian politics, ensuring victory in UP is considered the greatest prize for any political party, political experts say. Given a population of over 230 million people, among whom 130 million are voters, state polls in UP are considered the most crucial in the country.
With its 403 assembly seats, the highest in the country, UP will vote in seven phases, beginning from Feb 10
With its 403 assembly seats, the highest in the country, UP will vote in seven phases, beginning from Feb 10. Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa have scheduled polls on a single day on Feb 14, while Manipur, a small state in the northeast, will vote in two phases, on Feb 28 and Mar 5. Results will be announced on March 10.
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The UP contingent in the federal parliament also play an important role. Of the 543 lawmakers in the country's lower house, 80 are from the state – more than any other in India. UP was a significant contributor to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's decisive victory in the last national election in 2019, when Modi won a second term with a thumping majority.
More than 180 million voters will cast ballots across the five states. The BJP currently holds power in all states but Punjab.
In 2017, the BJP swept UP's state elections by grabbing three-quarters of the local assembly. Yogi Adityanath, a Hindu monk turned politician of BJP, is currently the state's chief minister.
The polls are being viewed by the public as a midterm referendum on Modi’s bid for a third term, said Sanjay Rao Ayde, head of the political science department at St. Stephen's College in New Delhi.
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If the BJP can ensure another big win in UP, it will be an early indicator of whether its strategy of bolstering Hindu nationalism will work again in the national elections, Ayde said, adding that a victory in UP will also position Adityanath as the most obvious heir to Modi.
Most opinion polls have indicated that the BJP will retain power in UP, though with a reduced majority.
The politics of caste and religion are a big factor in UP. Hindus comprise 80 percent of UP's population while minorities, of which the Muslims are a significant section, make up 19 percent. Recently, Adityanath termed the polls as an "80 percent versus 20 percent" contest, which roughly match UP's Hindu and Muslim demographics.
Adityanath was criticized for his alleged abysmal handling of the pandemic last year. On Feb 10, India reported 67,084 fresh COVID-19 cases and 1,241 deaths in the previous 24-hour period, according to the country's federal health ministry. The current elections are being held with tight restrictions on rallies and public meetings.
UP has long been the epicenter of Hindutva (Hindu ideology) politics, which have been nurtured by the BJP for decades, focusing around the construction of the Ram temple in the city of Ayodhya, where a mosque was vandalized in 1992 by Hindu nationalist groups.
The majority of Hindus and the group believe Ayodhya is the birthplace of Lord Ram, one of the most widely worshipped Hindu deities. The BJP has since then aggressively campaigned for the construction of the temple, and in 2019, when India's Supreme Court ruled in favor of the new temple, the party claimed its victory.
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Widespread opposition to three new farming laws in Punjab, Delhi and in the Western parts of UP, which led to a year of protests and the subsequent backlash that claimed dozens of farmers' lives, is also a huge concern for the ruling party. Modi repealed the laws in November, but it is unclear whether this will be enough to restore goodwill with the country's farming sector.
The BJP has promised that it will attract investment, provide free electricity for farmers and generate jobs for 20 million people. The party is also wooing voters with welfare measures and doubling free rations for the poor.
The BJP's main opponent in UP is the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav, 48, son of a three-time former chief minister of the state and a former chief minister himself. Yadav's image was marred by law-and-order issues when he was in power.
Mayawati, another former chief minister who heads a party of "untouchables" – groups deemed of lower caste, a form of discrimination officially outlawed in India – is also among the contenders. The country's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, is less influential in UP.
The writer is a freelance journalist for China Daily.